It was a fun contest, though I realized I stood no chance of winning once the china COVID market closed, I really missed the ball on that one. I'm surprised I ended up top 10 even after quitting 2/3rds of the way through.
It was a fun contest, though I realized I stood no chance of winning once the china COVID market closed, I really missed the ball on that one. I'm surprised I ended up top 10 even after quitting 2/3rds of the way through.
A shorter one has its own problems because it could end up all just being luck. That's a problem here, but the shorter it is the worse the problem is. Or you won't have enough markets on important things.
Would seem that the better idea is to maximize the diversity of questions to make performance on each as uncorrelated as possible. This prevents a single larger episode (Ukraine war, midterms) from affecting results so much.
It was a fun contest, though I realized I stood no chance of winning once the china COVID market closed, I really missed the ball on that one. I'm surprised I ended up top 10 even after quitting 2/3rds of the way through.
Maybe a shorter timespan contest next time?
A shorter one has its own problems because it could end up all just being luck. That's a problem here, but the shorter it is the worse the problem is. Or you won't have enough markets on important things.
Would seem that the better idea is to maximize the diversity of questions to make performance on each as uncorrelated as possible. This prevents a single larger episode (Ukraine war, midterms) from affecting results so much.