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Nice talk. Unfortunate that they stopped recording before questions, this is often the most interesting part!

My question is, do you think a reasonable estimate of lives saved by NPIs is even possible? (you say you don't believe your 200,000 number is accurate either) How broad is the problem? Is it so bad that we can dismiss any epidemiological model offhand, or are there instances of people using epidemiological models well and producing useful numbers?

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