Aug 15 • 34M

43: Mana from Heaven | Stephen Grugett, James Grugett, & Richard Hanania

Are open-source prediction markets the future of forecasting?

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Discussions with CSPI scholars and leading thinkers in science, technology, and politics.
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Stephen and James Grugett are programmers, entrepreneurs, and cofounders of the website Manifold Markets, which hosts user-created prediction markets. They join the podcast to discuss the Salem Center/CSPI Forecasting Tournament on Manifold Markets, which launched last week.

The Grugetts and Richard talk about the origins of Manifold Markets, what differentiates it from other prediction market sites, how academics have used the platform to bet on which studies replicate, and the potential for conditional markets to inform public policy debates. They end by brainstorming ideas to increase the value and prestige of Mana (M$), the platform’s currency.

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